Dublin — Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, Ryanair, has warned it could cancel its $30 billion order for 330 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft if U.S.-imposed tariffs significantly raise aircraft prices.
The move, which could reshape the global aviation landscape, comes amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary signaling a willingness to seek alternative suppliers, including China’s COMAC, if Boeing loses its price advantage.
Background and Escalation
Ryanair’s threat follows the administration’s consideration of new tariffs on a range of European goods in response to ongoing trade disputes. The airline, which operates over 600 Boeing 737s and is Boeing’s largest European customer, has 29 MAX aircraft scheduled for delivery by March 2026 and a further 150 firm orders and 150 options for the 737 MAX 10, with deliveries set for 2027.
In a letter to U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, O’Leary stated that if tariffs “materially affect the price of Boeing aircraft exports to Europe, then we would certainly reassess both our current Boeing orders and the possibility of placing those orders elsewhere.” The letter was in response to concerns about the security implications of Ryanair potentially turning to Chinese manufacturers.
Industry Impact and Feasibility
Ryanair’s warning marks a notable shift in its stance. O’Leary had previously indicated that the airline might delay deliveries, but the latest comments suggest outright cancellation is possible if tariffs are imposed. However, industry insiders point out that switching suppliers may not be straightforward: COMAC’s C919 jet has yet to receive European certification, and Airbus, Boeing’s main rival, is fully booked for the rest of the decade.
Aircraft purchase contracts typically do not include tariff provisions, as the industry has operated without such barriers for decades. Tariffs are only applied once ownership is transferred to the airline, and most contracts stipulate that each party is responsible for its own taxes, without specific mention of tariffs. The current situation is prompting a reevaluation of contract language across the industry to address future trade disruptions.
Strategic Posturing or Genuine Threat?
Some analysts view O’Leary’s comments as a strategic move ahead of tough negotiations with Boeing. Ryanair’s leverage as a major customer gives it significant bargaining power, but the practical challenges of switching to another supplier-especially given certification and production constraints-could limit its options. O’Leary has clarified that Ryanair has not held discussions with COMAC since 2011, but would consider the Chinese manufacturer if its prices were 10-20% lower than Airbus.
Broader Trade and Political Implications
The standoff highlights the vulnerability of the global aerospace sector to geopolitical tensions. If Ryanair were to cancel its Boeing orders, it would represent a major blow to the U.S. manufacturer and could accelerate shifts in the global supply chain. The airline’s stance underscores its focus on cost-effectiveness over political considerations, with O’Leary stating that Ryanair “is not inclined to finance the trade conflicts originating from Washington.”
The European Union may also retaliate if U.S. tariffs are imposed, raising the prospect of a broader trade war affecting the aviation industry. While tariffs have not impacted aircraft sales since 1979, the current climate suggests that protective barriers are weakening, and future transactions may be subject to more political risk.
Looking Ahead
Whether Ryanair’s threat will translate into action remains uncertain. The outcome will depend on the US government’s final decision on tariffs, Boeing’s response, and the broader dynamics of global aircraft supply. For now, Ryanair’s warning serves as a stark reminder of how political decisions can disrupt even the most established commercial relationships in the aviation sector.
Ryanair Threatens $30 Billion Boeing Order Over U.S. Tariffs (May 2, 2025)
